Ghana’s main opposition leader, former President John Dramani Mahama, is currently leading in the race for the December 7 presidential election, according to the latest opinion poll released on Monday. Mahama, who represents the National Democratic Congress (NDC), is ahead of his primary competitor, Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who is the candidate of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Poll results from Accra-based research group Global InfoAnalytics reveal that Mahama is polling at 52%, while Bawumia trails with 41.3%, leaving a gap of over 10 percentage points between the two main candidates. The poll, which has a margin of error of 1.9%, underscores significant public interest in Ghana’s economic recovery and infrastructure development amid the nation’s worst financial crisis in a generation.
Current President Nana Akufo-Addo, having served the maximum two terms, will step down in January, opening the field for new leadership as Ghana grapples with the fallout of a heavy debt burden and inflationary pressures. Both Mahama, 65, and Bawumia, 60, are pitching themselves as economic reformers. Mahama has a track record of substantial investment in infrastructure from his 2012–2017 presidency, although his tenure faced criticisms of economic instability and power shortages. His administration was also tainted by corruption allegations, though Mahama was never directly implicated. 
In contrast, Bawumia, a former central banker and economist, has centered his campaign on economic reform, aiming to address the issues stemming from Ghana’s 2022 default on $30 billion in external debt after years of overextended borrowing. To help stabilize the economy, Akufo-Addo’s administration secured a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund in 2023. The NPP is now navigating the final stages of a rigorous reform process required to facilitate IMF disbursements.
Despite the government’s efforts, economic challenges continue to drive voter discontent. Issues around employment, education, and infrastructure remain at the forefront of public concerns, according to the Global InfoAnalytics poll. Political analysts also suggest that these factors could sway the electorate towards the NDC, as evidenced by an Economist Intelligence Unit projection and a similar forecast by Fitch Solutions in October, both predicting an NDC victory due to the NPP’s economic track record.
Both Mahama and Bawumia hail from northern Ghana, a traditional NDC stronghold where the NPP has made some progress. However, analysts, including Alidu Seidu of the University of Ghana, foresee a close contest, noting that a run-off may be necessary if neither candidate secures an outright majority. Ghana’s electoral history reflects a democratic standard, with no political party ever securing more than two consecutive terms.
As the December election approaches, all 13 candidates, including Mahama and Bawumia, continue to campaign vigorously, hoping to convince Ghanaians that their approach is the solution to revitalizing the economy and securing a stable future for the nation.
What are your thoughts on Ghana’s upcoming election—will Mahama’s lead hold, or could Bawumia’s economic reform promises sway the final vote? Share your perspective below.
